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Check Back in June: NBA Predictions
Today might well be my favorite day of the year. Aside from schoolwork and other obligations, the NBA season starts tonight. That means free trials of NBA League Pass and Stat-tracker, but als a beloved 9 months of knowing that I can turn on the TV virtually every night and see some good solid NBA basketball. I'm looking forward to it.
This season is quite an interesting one with a lot of questions. Many stars are demanding/have demanded trades, some have backed down. The Spurs are quietly still the league's best team. The Celtics may be threatening them, though. Young teams like the Bulls, Jazz, Rockets, and Cavs all may have a shot, and the run-and-gun Mavs and Suns in the West could also challenge the NBA champs.
That said, let's make some predictions before the season kicks off tonight.
1.Will Kobe be traded? - You heard it here, first. NO. Kobe will be a Laker at the end of the year. I'm 95% sure of this for 2 reasons. First, it's practically impossible to pull off a deal of this sort in the NBA, especially with Kobe's "no-trade clause" which allows him to veto whatever deal he wants. Read: Kobe doesn't want to go to anyone but a contender, and doesn't want to go to any contender that has to gut their team in order to get him. Who does that leave as his options? Nobody. The Bulls seem to have the best chance, but the package they would have to offer would include Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah, and likely more--too much to get rid of by Kobe's or anyone else's estimate. Second, Phil Jackson will lobby hard to keep him around. His comments this past week are simply motivating words to get him to perk up. Why would Jackson want to be around a team of scrubs after accomplishing so much in his career? He doesn't, and if Kobe goes, there's no question Phil will be gone soon after. Jerry Buss will get over his tantrum, Kobe will learn to deal with it, and Derek Fisher will make things at least a little happy in LA. No deal.
2. Will the Spurs Repeat? - Again, likely against the grain of what everyone else is saying, but I say NO. I think the league is more wide open than ever this year. The Mavs, the Suns, the Jazz, and the Rockets all have the chance at winning the west and knocking off the reigning champs. Then, you can go even further and say the east has gotten that much better. The Celtics will certainly compete, the Pistons are always there, and the Bulls (with or without KB24) also have a shot. This doesn't even include LeBron and the Eastern Conference Champion Cavaliers. I think the Spurs are great, but they've got an uphill battle in their quest to repeat. My prediction for the NBA finals: Suns over Celtics. That'd be a fun series to watch.
3. Who will win the MVP? - I got to go with Kevin Garnett here. He's going to rejuvenate the Boston lineup, the city of Boston, and the eastern conference in general. Duncan may play as good as ever, Nash and Dirk, too. But, KG will be the most valuable player, not just to the team, but to the city and the entire eastern conference.
4. Rookie of the Year? - Hard to not say Kevin Durant here, and I will. When Oden went down, everyone knew this was the consensus. His injured ankle in the preseason wasn't good, but I think he'll bounce back quickly and perform.
5. Any big moves before Christmas? - Neither Marion, Andrei Kirilenko, nor Kobe will be traded. I honestly believe that the Lakers are going to attempt to placate Kobe and bring somebody big in and get rid of Odom. Jermaine O'neal? Maybe. My guess is that no big trades happen before Christmas. The trade deadline in February, though, may be a different story.
6. What about the Mavs? - This is one of the most interesting (Read: saddest) stories in the NBA. After compiling the league's best record, the Mavs bowed out to the #8 seeded Warriors in round 1 of the playoffs. Then, we didn't hear much from that. Realize that this probably pissed them off, but also realize that the style they play just isn't conducive to playoff basketball. They call Dirk to "go-to-guy," but I can't think of any big situation where Dirk has, well, come up big. Even after going up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals, what happened? Choke. The Mavs are a great team, but down the stretch, they tend to choke. Whether it be at the hands of the Suns, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, Warriors (again), or, dare I say, Lakers, I predict another exit for the Mavs without making it to the Finals.
Comment and post your predictions. Tell me why I'm wrong, but let's check back in June, and we'll see what happens. I love this game!
This season is quite an interesting one with a lot of questions. Many stars are demanding/have demanded trades, some have backed down. The Spurs are quietly still the league's best team. The Celtics may be threatening them, though. Young teams like the Bulls, Jazz, Rockets, and Cavs all may have a shot, and the run-and-gun Mavs and Suns in the West could also challenge the NBA champs.
That said, let's make some predictions before the season kicks off tonight.
1.Will Kobe be traded? - You heard it here, first. NO. Kobe will be a Laker at the end of the year. I'm 95% sure of this for 2 reasons. First, it's practically impossible to pull off a deal of this sort in the NBA, especially with Kobe's "no-trade clause" which allows him to veto whatever deal he wants. Read: Kobe doesn't want to go to anyone but a contender, and doesn't want to go to any contender that has to gut their team in order to get him. Who does that leave as his options? Nobody. The Bulls seem to have the best chance, but the package they would have to offer would include Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah, and likely more--too much to get rid of by Kobe's or anyone else's estimate. Second, Phil Jackson will lobby hard to keep him around. His comments this past week are simply motivating words to get him to perk up. Why would Jackson want to be around a team of scrubs after accomplishing so much in his career? He doesn't, and if Kobe goes, there's no question Phil will be gone soon after. Jerry Buss will get over his tantrum, Kobe will learn to deal with it, and Derek Fisher will make things at least a little happy in LA. No deal.
2. Will the Spurs Repeat? - Again, likely against the grain of what everyone else is saying, but I say NO. I think the league is more wide open than ever this year. The Mavs, the Suns, the Jazz, and the Rockets all have the chance at winning the west and knocking off the reigning champs. Then, you can go even further and say the east has gotten that much better. The Celtics will certainly compete, the Pistons are always there, and the Bulls (with or without KB24) also have a shot. This doesn't even include LeBron and the Eastern Conference Champion Cavaliers. I think the Spurs are great, but they've got an uphill battle in their quest to repeat. My prediction for the NBA finals: Suns over Celtics. That'd be a fun series to watch. 3. Who will win the MVP? - I got to go with Kevin Garnett here. He's going to rejuvenate the Boston lineup, the city of Boston, and the eastern conference in general. Duncan may play as good as ever, Nash and Dirk, too. But, KG will be the most valuable player, not just to the team, but to the city and the entire eastern conference.
4. Rookie of the Year? - Hard to not say Kevin Durant here, and I will. When Oden went down, everyone knew this was the consensus. His injured ankle in the preseason wasn't good, but I think he'll bounce back quickly and perform. 5. Any big moves before Christmas? - Neither Marion, Andrei Kirilenko, nor Kobe will be traded. I honestly believe that the Lakers are going to attempt to placate Kobe and bring somebody big in and get rid of Odom. Jermaine O'neal? Maybe. My guess is that no big trades happen before Christmas. The trade deadline in February, though, may be a different story.
6. What about the Mavs? - This is one of the most interesting (Read: saddest) stories in the NBA. After compiling the league's best record, the Mavs bowed out to the #8 seeded Warriors in round 1 of the playoffs. Then, we didn't hear much from that. Realize that this probably pissed them off, but also realize that the style they play just isn't conducive to playoff basketball. They call Dirk to "go-to-guy," but I can't think of any big situation where Dirk has, well, come up big. Even after going up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals, what happened? Choke. The Mavs are a great team, but down the stretch, they tend to choke. Whether it be at the hands of the Suns, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, Warriors (again), or, dare I say, Lakers, I predict another exit for the Mavs without making it to the Finals.Comment and post your predictions. Tell me why I'm wrong, but let's check back in June, and we'll see what happens. I love this game!
Labels: basketball, Boston Celtics, Dirk, Durant, Kevdog, Kevin Garnett, Kobe, Lakers, Mavericks, NBA, Phil Jackson, predictions, San Antonio Spurs
Monday, June 25, 2007
Re: Duncan (concurring opinion)
I concur with ChinMusic on this issue.
It appears as if success is being defined in terms of two factors--championships and excitement. Why aren't the Spurs exciting to watch? Because we live in CA. The Spurs are the most exciting thing that San Antonio has (after the Alamo* of course). But we have no interest in them so it isn't exciting to us. Also, what is exciting? A huge number of points scored? Slam dunks? Fast places Steve Nash Suns style of play? All of these things are subjective. Granted one of the best things about sports is that anyone can have an opinion. I may think that opinion is wrong, but so long as a person backs up that opinion with some reasons and statistics, I'll respect them.
But it seems as if we are trying to come up with an objective top ten based on some criteria that we could all point to and agree on. So why is excitement on there? Shouldn't it be just statistics? Because, I bet that there are plenty of San Antonio fans out there who think Duncan is the most exciting thing since sliced bread. I don't even think excitement should come into play as a factor here.
Is an exciting dunk worth more points than a layup? Granted, a play does have more impact if it can change the momentum of a game, but all things being equal, statistics are the most accurate way players can be compared.
Furthermore, ratings have been down for all sports this year. Look at the Stanley Cup Finals? And playoff hockey in general? Worst ratings in years. So, I find fault in the argument that low ratings equals less excitement.
I think the low ratings for both leagues had to do with the fact that San Antonio and Anaheim are both small markets. Small market means fewer fans watching the games on television.
Again, this is just my opinion. Out of the four contributing authors to this blog, I know the least about basketball (although my fantasy league performance would suggest otherwise).
*Note: Did you see it in today's Press Enterprise? Paul Reubens might be bringing back the belowed Pee-Wee character to the big screen.
It appears as if success is being defined in terms of two factors--championships and excitement. Why aren't the Spurs exciting to watch? Because we live in CA. The Spurs are the most exciting thing that San Antonio has (after the Alamo* of course). But we have no interest in them so it isn't exciting to us. Also, what is exciting? A huge number of points scored? Slam dunks? Fast places Steve Nash Suns style of play? All of these things are subjective. Granted one of the best things about sports is that anyone can have an opinion. I may think that opinion is wrong, but so long as a person backs up that opinion with some reasons and statistics, I'll respect them.
But it seems as if we are trying to come up with an objective top ten based on some criteria that we could all point to and agree on. So why is excitement on there? Shouldn't it be just statistics? Because, I bet that there are plenty of San Antonio fans out there who think Duncan is the most exciting thing since sliced bread. I don't even think excitement should come into play as a factor here.
Is an exciting dunk worth more points than a layup? Granted, a play does have more impact if it can change the momentum of a game, but all things being equal, statistics are the most accurate way players can be compared.
Furthermore, ratings have been down for all sports this year. Look at the Stanley Cup Finals? And playoff hockey in general? Worst ratings in years. So, I find fault in the argument that low ratings equals less excitement.
I think the low ratings for both leagues had to do with the fact that San Antonio and Anaheim are both small markets. Small market means fewer fans watching the games on television.
Again, this is just my opinion. Out of the four contributing authors to this blog, I know the least about basketball (although my fantasy league performance would suggest otherwise).
*Note: Did you see it in today's Press Enterprise? Paul Reubens might be bringing back the belowed Pee-Wee character to the big screen.
Labels: Duncan, hockey, San Antonio Spurs, Stanley Cup
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