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Friday, June 29, 2007

 

What's Your Fantasy?

Within the last 24 hours, there have been no less than 3 major trades in the NBA involving some major fantasy contributors. Add this to the fact that one of the deepest NBA drafts has just been completed, and you get the perfect recipe for a fantasy analysis. I have broken down each of the trades and important picks of yesterday's draft, complete with fantasy value implications and insider tips on when you should target these movers and shakers in your upcoming NBA fantasy draft. All draft spot suggestions are based on a 12 team, 12 round draft for a head-to-head format league. Let's do this.

1. Portland Drafts Oden
Analysis
: The big man's talent is no secret. The most anticipated player since LeBron James, Greg Oden doesn't figure to disappoint. He will be the anchor on a strong Blazer's front line, providing ample scoring, boards, and the elusive block. The center position is not as weak as it used to be, but Oden is strong enough to emerge as a top 5 center option this next year.
Suggested Draft Spot: Early to mid rounds

2. Seattle Drafts Durant
Analysis: This consensus number two pick is probably the third-most anticipated player in since LeBron and Oden. Kevin Durant has the tools to be an incredible scorer and slasher, but is big and athletic enough to grab a good share of rebounds and assists. Look for him to take a little while to get his feet wet and adjust to NBA-level defense, but Durant is definitely worth taking a chance on in his rookie year. Just don't make the mistake of taking him while proven scorers are still on the board.
Suggested Draft Spot: Mid to late rounds

3. Seattle-Boston Trade
Sonics get: Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, No. 5 pick in the draft (Jeff Green)
Celtics get: Ray Allen, No. 35 pick in the draft (Glen Davis)


Wally Szczerbiak: UP
Analysis: In an offense that has experienced a certain amount of success with 2 perimeter studs, Wally steps into the spot vacated by 3-ball extraordinaire Ray Allen. While in Boston, he was plagued by injury and a crowded roster. Combine that with a fickle coach in Doc Rivers, and you get a player that did more harm on your active roster than good. Now, with his new home and solid place in a lineup, look for Szczerbiak's numbers and minutes to increase from last year. It remains to be seen how he will be used with Kevin Durant on the squad. If you need a 3-point specialist, he might just be your man.
Suggested Draft Spot: Mid to late rounds

Delonte West: DOWN
Analysis: I can think of two teams that were unrealistically bogged down with too many point guards last year: Seattle and Boston. The Celtics balanced the point guard position between West, Rajon Rondo, and Sebastian Telfair during the '06-'07 season. Delonte now goes to a team where Luke Ridnour and Earl Watson split the starting PG duties last year, leaving either very little chance to get time at the point or a possibility of sliding him over to the 2 spot to back up Wally Szczerbiak. Either way, it doesn't look like Delonte will be starting next year unless the Sonics have another trade up their sleeves that will move a point guard or two. If that is the case, West will have some significant fantasy value. Until then, don't count on him for much.
Suggested Draft Spot: Late rounds

Jeff Green: N/A
Analysis: This do-it-all swingman comes to the league with high expectations. In college, he left Georgetown ranked 17th in scoring, 16th in rebounding and 12th in assists on the all-time lists. He has a ton of potential, and will likely become a fantasy stud in years to come. It's just hard to see him making enough of an impact on the same team as Kevin Durant, at least his first year, to justify a draft pick on him.
Suggested Draft Spot: Very late rounds to none

Ray Allen: SAME
Analysis: Ray Allen was already a first round pick (or maybe early second if someone got lucky) at last year's fantasy draft. By moving to Boston, I don't really see his value dropping or increasing. The main reason for this consistency in value is the interchangeability of Rashard Lewis left behind in Seattle and Paul Pierce that Allen joins in Beantown. Both Lewis and Pierce are SFs that can shoot the lights out from inside and beyond the arch, pull down boards, and get a good amount of steals. Allen was averaging over 40 minutes per game in Seattle, and I don't see that changing on the Celtics squad. All signs point toward Ray being the same fantasy stud we've become used to drafting in recent years.
Suggested Draft Spot: Late first, early second round

Glen "Big Baby" Davis: N/A
Analysis
: This big man doesn't figure to make a significant dent in the already-stacked front line of the Celtics. The likes of Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, and Kendrick Perkins will get a majority of the minutes in the post, with Michael Olowokandi and a healthy Theo Ratliff providing most of the relief. Davis will likely be part of the back-up committee and won't produce more stats than other players available at the end of your draft will be able to.
Suggested Draft Spot: None

Additional Players Affected:
Luke Ridnour: DOWN
Earl Watson:
DOWN
Rajon Rondo:
UP

4. Portland-New York Trade
Trail Blazers get: Steve Francis, Channing Frye
Knicks get: Zach Randolph, Dan Dickau, Fred Jones


Steve Francis: UP
Analysis: Simply put, Steve Francis' value would have gone up no matter where he got traded away from New York. If he is able to shake off the any lingering effects of last year's injuries, he has the remaining potential to become an elite point guard once again. However, there is talk of Portland buying out Stevie's contract and simply letting him go, which would bring his fantasy value back down to where it was last season: nothing. He is being traded to a place that has plenty of assist facilitators, and is quick enough to pick up a good amount of steals. You'll have to monitor his situation as the draft approaches, but if he's still on the Blazers come October, he's worth taking a flier on.
Suggested Draft Spot: Late rounds if he's still on a roster

Channing Frye: SAME
Analysis: Second-year PF Channing Frye is coming off a solid year at New York. He joins a well-equipped post staff in Portland, but figures to contribute in a tangible way off their bench. The reason he will be able to maintain his value despite being demoted from a starter last year to a back-up this year lies in the hands of his coach. Last season, Channing had to endure being yanked around on coach Isaiah Thomas' chain of volatility. Blazer's coach Nate MacMillan should provide Frye with enough playing time and stability to maximize his potential as a non-starter. I would confidently draft him expecting a 10 and 10 post man that can reject the occasional lazy layup.
Suggested Draft Spot: Mid to late rounds

Zach Randolph: DOWN
Analysis: Zach is coming off a pretty successful year with Portland, leading the team in scoring and rebounds. He also shot a great percentage from the line for a big man (82%). Now that he's in the Big Apple, his production is bound to take a hit playing alongside coach's pet Eddy Curry. Their games are very simliar, both possessing a low-post game and a mid-range jump-shot. This combination of two nearly-identical players (save their percentages) has been attempted in New York before, and everyone knows how successful that was. Isaiah Thomas isn't going go and I just don't see either Curry or Randolph being able to put out the same numbers their fantasy owners enjoyed last year.
Suggested Draft Spot: Mid rounds

Dan Dickau: UP
Analysis: Dan was plagued by injury last year, and looks to spend less time behind Stephon Marbury and Nate Robinson and more time backing up Knicks starting SG Jamal Crawford along with Fred Jones. Given Crawford's shaky health history, Dickau could have some value later in the season. As it stands now, he can contribute in only a minimal way, as Isaiah has traditionally played Jamal more than 40 minutes a night when he has been healthy.
Suggested Draft Spot: Very late rounds or none

Fred Jones: UP
Analysis: This forgotten former Slam Dunk Contest champion showed potential while on Indiana a few years ago, and could come into his own with the Knicks. He faces the same problem as Dan Dickau, however. Unless he gets a chance to perform, he obviously won't. The success of both Jones and Dickau depend on the demise of Jamal Crawford.
Suggested Draft Spot: Very late rounds or none

Additional Players Affected:
LaMarcus Aldridge: UP
Stephon Marbury: UP
Nate Robinson: UP

5. Golden State-Charlotte Trade
Warriors get: No. 8 pick in the draft (Brandan Wright), $10 million trade expection
Bobcats get: Jason Richardson, No. 36 pick in the draft (Jermareo Davidson)


Brandan Wright: N/A
Analysis: Wright is a big explosive freshman out of North Carolina that will bolster Golden State's lacking front line. He can get to the rim and is known for his defense, which will help the Warriors immensly in the tough Western Conference. Like teammate Andris Biedrins, he could stand to hit the weights and gain some muscle power. He's worth taking a shot at in your draft, just don't expect all-star numbers out of a 19-year-old rook.
Suggested Draft Spot: Late rounds

Jason Richardson: UP
Analysis: J-Rich is brough into Charlotte as their go-to scorer, so this move will do nothin but improve his value. I think Golden State viewed Richardson's trade value as much higher than the value he showed in last year's playoffs, where he virtually failed to factor into any of the deciding games. Paired with Gerald Wallace, Jason has a chance to become one of the leagues leading scorers in Charlotte, although it will be interesting to see how the Bobcats decide to play both of the SF's together.
Suggested Draft Spot: Between early and mid rounds

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Comments:
I think this is solid, thorough analysis.

Going through it, had I written the same column, I would have put the exact same trends for every player you listed except for maybe Wally Szczerbiak.

I would argue that Wally's value is completely contingent on Rashard Lewis' future with Seattle. Drafting Durant and trading for Green indicates that Seattle is going towards a youth movement, with the emphasis on those 2 players. Wally could be a sleeper if Rashard leaves town, but otherwise, I don't see him having much fantasy value.

I could be wrong, though, and this is a great analysis.
 
I like the post as well. Perhaps a simulated first round draft would be a good entry? Each author takes three teams? What says you?
 
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